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FLOWING 4- FF (RBS) TOP 26 (20) For PPR

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  • Aug 2, 2018
  • 29 min read

NFL season is upon us...!! Training camps are open and I have been thoroughly triggered. Only doing the top 20 for now because its a position with a lot of flux and we will know more (injuries, players cut, depth charts, player usage) by training camps end. But at this time, if your like me, the commissioners are starting to reach out and draft positions are being set. Unlike NBA-NHL-MLB, these rosters are pretty much set and will not change much if at all going forward. This helps us hunker down atleast the top half of the position- so- lets get it.

1. BELL (cow) 2017 FF RB #2

2017: 15 GP- 321 ATT (NFL1)- 1291 YARDS- 4 YPC- 9 TD

RECEIVING: 106 TARGETS- 85 REC- 655 YARDS- 7.7 AVG- 2 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1946

Bell is #1 because he is the surest bet to finish in the top 5 out of any other RB. I seriously think any of the top 10 could finish #1, but every RB has a bigger question mark than Bell. He has played 12+ games 4 of his 5 years in the league and owns a 4.7+ ypc in 3 of those years as well (thats very very very good). For someone who doesn't scream explosive when you watch him run, his patience buys him cheap yards at his O-lines expense (Brilliant). He is able to get through holes as good as anyone when they develop and has the jump cut to make LB's miss at the second level. His slower running style saves him from injuries and with Big Ben and Big Brown still in PIT the balanced offense that has enabled his efficiency in his career so far looks to continue. New OC but I dont care, if you dont use Bell your a moron. His awareness as a receiver in the backfield is elite, you can have a RB or coaching staff who wants backfield receivers but if they dont know how to get open or find space it wont work and Bell is the master. His ypc numbers arent great, but the volume makes it irrelevant and he is the only active RB to have multiple 100+ target seasons. Save a marijuana suspension, hes a sure thing and with no backup demadning touches (James Connors?) Bell will be $ again in 2018.

2. GURLEY II 2017 FF RB #1

2017: 15 GP- 279 ATT- 1305 YARDS- 4.7 YPC- 13 TD (NFL1)

RECEIVING: 87 TARGETS- 64 REC- 788 YARDS- 12.3 AVG- 6 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 2093 (NFL1)

Raise your hand if you picked Todd #1 in 2016 coming off a superb debut on HARD KNOCKS along with a magical rookie season....... yup.. right with ya. But in 2017 he changed it back around to the tune of #1 in total touchdown and #2 in yards rushing. He finished as RB1 in fnatasy by over 50 points thansk to his 19 combined scores. The former bulldog is a magical player with a ypc of 4.8-3.2 (again WTF)- and 4.7 over his 3 years so far. He will be 24 this up coming season and although he has rushed the ball a fair amount, 278.5 rush att avg the last 2 years, its also not a ridiculous total either. Some might think his 13 TD were luck in 2018, but when you look at his rookie year of 10 TD on 229 att, one might reach the conclusion he just has a nose for the end-zone. What changed the game last year was his receiving, getting 87 targets and actually catching them, along with an insane 12.3 ypr average. He was THE REASON the Rams offense was so explosive and Goff was able to pass into helpful coverage's. Good offense, a QB who had a solid sophomore 2017, and a line who has 4/5 starters who grade avg or better (PFF) it looks like Todd should be cashing checks in 2018.

3. ALVIN (and the chipmunks) 2017 FF RB #3

2017: 16 GP- 120 ATT- 728 YARDS- 6.1 YPC- 8 TD

RECEIVING: 100 TARGETS- 81 REC- 826 YARDS- 10.2 AVG- 5 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1554

This dude explodes off of the tape, and not just because he wears a grill WHILE ACTUALLY PLAYING IN THESE FU****** GAMES. Top 4 on the list of "I have interests outside of football", but im cool with it. Kamara averaged an INSANE 6.1 ypc in 2017- on limited attempts (120)- but this is the list of dudes who haven't EVEN averaged 5 ypc in a season; Melvin Gordon- Todd Gurley- David Johnson- Le'Veon Bell- Jerome Bettis (HOF)- Marcus Allen (HOF)- John Riggins (HOF)- and Thurman Thomas (HOF). He has "I've never seen anyone quite like him" skills. Alvin is so good, Mark Ingram literally FINISHED TOP 5 IN RUSHING YARDS ;ast year and Kamara was still RB #3 in fantasy while also making the word think good ol Mark should be benched (he won a Heisman). He is the perfect size at 5'10 215 with elite speed, agility, and punch you in the mouth strength to battle through defenders. He is top 3 on the list of guys you say "AHHHHHH F*** hes on the field DONT GIVE HIM THE BALL". His carries will be up, his targets will be up, and his grill game will re-up as well. Sean Payton is very smart, combined with a super natural talent like this, I expect more good things in 18'.

4. (hold my) JOHNSON 2017 FF RB #- (2016 #1)

2016: 16 GP- 293 ATT- 1239 YARDS- 4.2 YPC- 16 TD

RECEIVING: 120 TARGETS- 80 REC- 879 YARDS- 11 AVG- 4 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 2118 (NFL1)

Here is the list of the top RB fantasy seasons sense 2010

1. 2016. D. Johnson- 397

2. 2017. T. Gurley- 371

3. 2013. J. Charles- 365

4. 2014. L. Bell- 356

5. 2014. D. Murray- 346

6. 2012. A. Peterson- 337

7. 2014. M. Forte- 334

8. 2017. L. Bell- 329

9. 2013. M. forte- 326

10. 2013. L. McCoy- 317

Interesting list to gloss over. The common thread to all? Pass catchers, every single one of them besides AP in the 6 slot but he is a All-Time GOAT at the position. It also tells us that at his peak Sir Johnson is an INCREDIBLE TALENT. Talking 5-tool backs this guy has 6! Super humble dude, was a sub-division college player who is just a complete load of a man at 6'1 225 (if you haven't seen him on the ALL OR NOTHING on AMAZON, watch). Look at his stats above, I have a hard time imagining a back ever having more than 120 targets in a season, right? I know Shady never has (hasn't even gotten to 100), Bell tops at 106 last year, McCaffery just got 113 and Sproiles had 111 back in 2011, so like who the hell else could possibly have more targets out of the back field? I'm saying no one. My only bone to pick with DJ is that he has never eclipsed 4.6 ypc in the league. And while 4.6 is good, when we are talking best of the best I wanna see more. Some might say "well his teams weren't balanced and he had loaded boxes", well not really, because Carson Palmer was there along with Larry Legend so I'd beg to differ. In the age of RB by committee, this is a guy who can always stay on the field and that has extreme value when your talking week-to-week consistency. He isn't higher because A. He is coming off an injury (even though its a hand, still not good). B. The offense will not be as it was in 16' with Bradford/Allen behind center. C. Steve Wilks takes over for Arians so how does that effect his workload? Wouldn't be surprised if he finished first- you can be rest assured if you take him you have a really solid player.

5. ZEKE 2017 FF RB #12

2017: 10 GP- 242 ATT- 983 YARDS- 4.1 YPC- 7 TD

RECEIVING: 38 TARGETS- 26 REC- 269 YARDS- 10.3 AVG- 2 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1252

#1 on the list of guys who wont be able to walk in 8 years but Jerry Jones doesn't give a shit. Led the league in carries during his rookie year with 322, and was on pace for over 360 last year if you parlay his numbers over 16 games. One of these guys who is slightly TD dependent because he doesn't catch the ball much, but that might be a different story in 18'. No Dez Bryant or Witten and right now Terrance Williams and Allen Hurns are the Cowboys top 2 WR... sooo.. might need some play-making in the passing game from this superb back who you drafted top 5. Went from 2.1 receptions a game to 2.6 last year- we want that to keep rising plus hes done well when catching it averaging over 10 ypr his 2 years in the league. Think his ypc of 4.1 last year versus his 5.1 in 16' will be closer to his career mark, and especially this year with a seemingly brutal passing game where I expect lots of loaded fronts. But like Adrian in the Mini days, if your good enough it just doesn't matter. Feed the beast and well see this cami shirt wearing fool topping the charts in fantasy yet again.

6. BARKLEY 2017 FF RB #-

ROOK

Sense 2012 a rookie running back has finished top 8 every year, with 5 of those years seeing multiple rookies finish inside the top 10. In 2017 we saw Kamara finish 3rd, Hunt 4th, McCaffery 9th and Fournette 10th. 2016 Zeke was 2nd with J. Howard finishing 10th. 2015 Gurley finished 8th on limited touches. 2014 JEREMY GOD DAMN HILL finished 8th and C.J. Anderson 9th. 2013 Big Lacy finished 7th and Gio Bernard 9th. Lastly 2012 Dougie Martin finished 2nd and Alfred Morris finished 4th. History lesson aside- this tells us that high-end rookie RB's almost always pan out. What Kamara and Hunt did was spectacular, BUT THEY BOTH WENT OUTSIDE THE TOP 2 ROUNDS (in both the NFL draft and Fantasy drafts). Barkley was picked #2 overall for a reason, he is going to get a lot of touches. Weather they are mostly on the ground like Zeke or a decent mix like Gurley or Lacy we don't care- his talent will make every touch count (did you see his first carry as a pro?!?! I MEAN SHEEESH). He is a 5-tool back: Speed, Strength, Agility, Catching, and blocking- this guy can do it all. Plus his team just handed out the biggest O-line deal ever to Nate Solder and drafted one of my favorite prospects in Willy Hernandez at OG. We know he will be top 8, ill pay your dues if he doesn't (my insurance is a 13gp policy) the question becomes will he finish 2nd or 7th? We wont know, but snag him around here for a sure thing. Plus, these rookies tend to stay healthier than the more veteran backs. SaQUOOOOOOOON to the rescue.

7. HUNT(er) 2017 FF RB#4

2017: 16 GP- 272 ATT- 1327 YARDS (NFL1)- 8 TD- 4.9 YPC

RECEIVING: 63 TARGETS- 53 REC- 455 YARDS- 8.6 AVG- 3 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1782

Top 5 All-Time in fantasy points by a rookie RB threw the first 3 weeks of a season. The prime-time game against the Pats put him on the map. Hunt is short, stocky, quick, and strong and he reminds me a bit of one of the greatest KC Chiefs ever: Priest Holmes. Hunt has a couple inches on him but Holmes was ahead of his time in his ability as a pass catcher out of the backfield and his elusiveness on draw plays and stretch runs. Look at Hunts highlights, he had a few plays running straight go routes and catching them in full stride like a WR. Hes on the football guys list of "Dudes who just refuse to go down" he runs tough and has all the moves. Spin move? sure- Truck stick? oh ya- Side step? all day. Love his running style and his ability to stay on the field every down. The one thing that causes concern, Spencer Ware is back and he has had success as a featured back in this league. You hope Hunt isn't the product of a good system rather than a very skilled back, but ill take the later, this Toledo (F'ing Toledo?!) product is special. Led the league in rushing, caught a crazy amount of his targets, and unlike popular opinion- he didnt fall off in the second half of the season. Although his weeks 11-13 weren't great, he had 83 points in weeks 14-16 when it counts the most. Draft him and sleep well at night, I know I will praying he falls to me at #9.

8. COOK FF RB #-

2017: 4 GP- 74 ATT- 354 YARDS- 4.8 YPC- 2 TD

RECEIVING: 16 TARGETS- 11 REC- 90 YARDS- 0TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 444

Top 7 last name in the league, also a top 7 talent perhaps. He was on pace for roughly 1700 all purpose yards before the dreaded knee injury, but that total would have been 4th last year at the position. It was heart-throbbing to see that injury week 4, busted threw the line of scrimmage, made a cut and went down immediately without being touched. DCook was a Heisman finalist in college and is yet again a back who can stay on the field every down. What I like about his running style- Patience, not quite like Bell, but when he gets a hand-off he doesn't rush to get in the hole (Zeke), rather he observes the flow of the line and is superb at finding back-cutting lanes and adjusting his running path. Also his screen game and pop out pass catching skills are great. He finds the open areas and gives his QB an ally to throw him the ball. What is concerning: A. Obviously the injury, new science has helped but any ACL/MCL tear is a big RED flag. B. The presence of a backup in LATAVIUS- he was more than serviceable filling in last year and has typically been a featured back in his career. Will he vulture goal line carries? C. I'm just not sure this guy gets 20 total touches a game. Not many backs do anymore, but when you have to feed Latavius a bit, Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph, HOPEFULLY FU***** MEGAQUON to- will he get enough volume to get in the top 10. I think so, and even if he doesn't his talent might just get him there anyway.

9. DEVONTA FREEMAN FF RB#15

2017: 14GP- 196 ATT- 865 YARDS- 4.4 YPC- 7 TD

RECEIVING- 47 TARGETS- 36 REC- 8.8 AVG- 1 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1182

Fantasy Football is all about weighing risk with reward- this is a player who, with an elite QB and play makers on offense, will without fail finish top 12 at the position barring an injury. Fancy Chart below-

FF RB RANK BY YEAR

2017- 15th

2016- 6th

2015- 1st

Not bad huh? And before his injury last year (Week 10) he was 9th in the RB rankings. Freeman has scored 29 touchdown over his last 3 seasons and he has the second most goal-line carries in that span as well. As I said, he plays in one of the best offenses in the league which means: longer drives = more plays= increased scoring opportunities= more FF points= Happy owners. Interesting takeaway from a player who has mostly split time with Tevin Coleman (both drafted in 14'): Devonta had 7 games in which he had 12 of fewer carries a game in 2017. In those games his ypc was 4.36. Freeman had 5 games where he carried the ball 18 or more times. In those game his ypc was 4.4..... So really no difference in efficiency when we talk usage. He's had a 97 target season, has lead position players in TDs, owns a 4.8 ypc season on 200 or more carries, and has played 16-15-16-13 GP in his 4 seasons. DONT SLEEP ON THIS BACK WITH ALL THE OTHER RB's.. he will rise again.

10. (not flash) GORDON FF RB #5

2017: 16 GP- 284 ATT- 1105 YARDS- 3.9 YPC- 9 TD

RECEIVING: 83 TARGETS- 58 REC- 476 YARDS- 8.2 AVG- 4 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1581

Being a Gophers fan I saw this dude terrorize our defenses EVERY YEAR. He looked explosive, elusive, and extremely fast for a big dude with python biceps (they are gigantic). So why has he averaged 3.5-3.9-3.9 ypc his first three years in the league? Two years under 4, ok kinda fluky, but 3?! Thats a problem for me. Hold the "well hes had bad O-lines" GUESS WHAT, ITS STILL HORRIBLE. 3 poor (the worst rating for PFF) starters on the line and then 2 average, NOT ONE GUY ABOVE AVERAGE. Now this could go three directions. 1st- He suddenly becomes the back "experts" thought he would be averaging 4.6 ypc combined with his 284 att and this guy has a banner year. 2nd- He does what hes always done having mediocre to poor efficiency paired with a lot of volume on a great offense which makes him have good FF seasons. or the 3rd- He averages a bad 3.8 ypc- Barry Sanders finally comes out of retirement and caps off a HOF career by winning a Super Bowl for LA. WAHOO.. In all seriousness his backup is Austin Ekeler, who although not a big name did average 5.5 ypc in his rookie season on 47 att. I put an equal chance on all three outcomes, and frankly for a "Top 10 Back" I shouldn't be worried someone might take his job. BUT... although Ekler in ok he isnt better than Gordon, the team invested in the offensive line over the summer (PFF is only a number, well see how they play in 18'), and his volume is just gigantic which you cannot ignore. What also elevated his game last year was catching passes going from 33-41-58 receptions over his first 3 years int he NFL. I think people perceive his floor to be low, but every year top RB's always fall off and this guy has shown signs that he could be next to the list..

11. (slim) SHADY 2017 FF RB #7

2017: 16 GP- 287 ATT- 1138 YARDS- 4 YPC- 6 TD

RECEIVING- 77 TARGETS- 59 REC- 448 YARDS- 7.6 AVG- 2 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1586

**PENDING NO CURRENT OR FUTURE SUSPENSION**

Go up three spots and check the All-Time sense 2010 list- McCoy has the #10 spot, he also owns the #11 and #16 spots too. You just don't get the nickname Shady for shits and gigs, he has had a HOF career and will be in Canton soon. My favorite McCoy stat- in his 9 years in the NFL he has played 16 games 4 times- 15 games 3 times (that is 7 years of at least 15 gp in a 9 year window) and the other 2 years? 12 games. THAT DOESNT HAPPEN. Also over those 9 years, he has only surpassed 300+ carries 2 times, so he isn't as burnt out as a Peterson, Payton, DeMarco, future Zeke, Larry Johnson, etc... Also if you look at his numbers: he either has seasons of less volume but at increased ypc and ypr- or- seasons with larger volume but slightly less efficiency. I will take either, and this man has been one of the most consistent backs literally ever. You've seen him for almost 10 years, you know how he runs and how great he is. Just when you wanna say he's to old or on a bad team, he routinely ends up top 10. Also, this a a dude with 0 competition for carries- as if anyone could surpass SHADY. I've learned my lesson, he will finish top 10 yet again at age 30.

12. (4)Nette FF RB #10

2017: 13GP- 268 att- 1040 yards- 3.9 ypc- 9 TD

RECEIVING: 48 TARGETS- 36 REC- 8.4 AVG- 1 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1342

I mean if he was 10 last year why not stick around there this year? This "bell cow back" will have to live with his 24 rushes a game and maybe 3 targets. Blake goes big and he rarely goes home to his backs in the flats. Its why we love Blake, but for fantasy RB's not so good. Interesting note, his stats are pretty darn good FOR ONLY PLAYING 13 GAMES, and two others he got knocked out of kinda early. The Jag scored the 5th most points last year and the 2nd highest in the AFC, a trend I dont think continues (even though the D scored a good chunk of those points). He is a bull (6'-230), but with injuries combined with higher competition I dont think he was as quick as some thought he would be in the NFL. A playmaker at LSU, I think hes a little more of a one cut guy in the NFL. YPC not where I want it but I think he can settle in around 4.4 during his career. He has the promise to finish inside the top 5 if he plays 16 games and converts at the goal line, but the former has been an issue sense HS... High draft pick with no backup + shit ton of carries + good team= RB1.

13. (christ)McCaffery FF RB #9

2017: 16 GP- 117 ATT- 435 YARDS- 3.7 YPA- 2 TD

RECEIVING: 113 TARGETS- 80 REC- 8.1 AVG- 5 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1086

If this guy can just stay on the field a little bit more in 18' I know he has bust out potential. Finished 9th last year and there is no reason he doesn't belong there again. I do think CJ Anderson is a better back than J-Stewart but I still see McCaffery's role increasing. Remarkable 113 targets which ranks NUMBER ONE AMONG ALL RB'S last year. He is basically and incredibly efficient receiver playing running back. Christian is slightly undersized which I think effects him more so now than in his NCAA days, and the 3.7 ypc is the worst out of the top 30 ff RB's in 2017, but the second half of the year his ypc went up to above 4.5. I view him similar to a Jerrick Mckinnon (coming kinda soon) in that they are explosive on tape and you would assume they are high ypc or ypr players, but they cant break arm tackles and they go down a little to easy. I also think hes a runner who over the course of the game breaks one to bring up the rushing totals and averages up. With C.J. Anderson now in the fold (who I have always loved) Im not sure if his volume as a rusher increases significantly, but I don't foresee a dip in his receiving whatsoever. The guy has a blood line like the Kennedys, we will see if he can have a few more highlights in 18' to justify this ranking.

14. (jet) Mckinnon FF RB #17

2017: 16 GP- 150 ATT- 570 YARDS- 3.8 YPC- 3 TD

RECEIVING: 68 TARGETS- 51 REC- 421 YARDS- 8.3 YPR- 2TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 991

I wanted to put Jordan Howard here but I recalled what I did last year and severally regretted. I made the mistake of putting to much value on guys who get guaranteed carries so when I had the likes Alex Collins, Frank Gore, and Lamar Miller across several teams and not taking shots on guys like Jerick, (duke) Johnson, Dion Lewis and company I was pissed. I mean shit, DANNY FREEKING WOODHEAD was RB #3 in 2015 (given, an awful year for the RB position, like historically bad). My red flag for Jerick is his yards per carry- His first two years in the league with 113 and 52 attempts his ypc was 4.8 and 5.2. THOSE NUMBERS ARE SUPERB. But then his last two years with carries of 159 and 150, his ypc dropped to 3.4 and 3.8..... Which back is he? He has the burst, speed, and agility but hes on the list of guys who go down to easily (5-9' 206). He cant break tackles and I think his vision as a back and a receiver has room to improve. But going to the west coast Niners where he has an offensive Yoda in Kyle Shanahan I know hell find ways to make him sccussfull. Plus they freeking paid this dude (4yr- 30 mil- 18 guaranteed), so he will get used. Shanahan is the guy who led the prolific 2016 Atlanta Falcons offense to the Super Bowl (Tom Brady :)), but his ability to put Freeman and Coleman in spots where they could succeed is telling. Will he get 200 carries? probably not. Will he be top 5 in RB catches? I would be surprised if he wasn't. If he does, he will be in this territory.

15. JORDAN HOWARD (stern?) FF RB #14

2017: 16 GP- 276 ATT- 1122 YARDS- 4.1 YPC- 9 TD

RECEIVING: 32 TARGETS- 23 REC- 5.4 YPR- 0TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1247

He is top 7 on the list of guys who refuse to be tackled. at 6' 225 he is a bigger back but uses a lateral jump cut and truck stick to get past tacklers. 14th at the position last year and 10th his rookie season, this is a player who in this range you pick because he has a low floor. There might be some rookies some experts rank higher who might do better at seasons end, but there is a whole lot who will do worse. First two seasons= two 1,000+ yard season, not bad right?. List of RB's to not do that: Gale Sayers (who for shits and gigs led the NFl with 1,213 yards in 1966 with the Chicago Bears in his second season after a 867 yard rookie campaign), Walter Payton (Led NFL with 1,852 yards in his 3rd season), Jim Brown, OJ (lol), and Reggie Bush. List of players that have: Clinton Portis, AP (Led NFL second year), Barry Sanders, and LT. IM JUST SAYING OK. Tarik Cohen bites into receptions having 53 in 71 att during 16' but with only a 6.7 average on those catches so I see an alternate universe where Howard becomes a 3-down back. Likely? no, but even at 15 I think there are a few scenarios where Howard is a legit RB1.

16. JAY AJAYI FF RB #36

2017: 14 GP- 208 ATT- 873 YARDS- 4.2 YPC- 1 TD

RECEIVING: 34 TARGETS- 24 REC- 5.5 AVG- 1 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1031

I go with Jay because 1. He will be in one of the top 5 offenses in the league. 2. History shows hes been one of the most gifted runners sense entering the NFL in 2015 (career 4.5 ypc) 3. HE SCORED 2 TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS LAST YEAR, that will not happen again (opposite regression). 4. out of the 5 O-line starters 4 grade out great to elite on PFF (its the best line in FB). Between switching teams, running for a pretty tough O-line in Miami, and the Eagles not knowing how to distribute carries, it was an awful season for Jay. However, Blunt is gone, Wentz is back, and Jay figures to have a boat load of TD opportunities in 18'. Phili was 3rd last year in team rushing and with Jay, Clement, and even Sproiles I see this team continuing that trend. A lot of Coach Peterson's staff got plucked away after a remarkable Super Bowl victory, so im interested to see how the teams play will be influenced. But Jay can do it all, power, finesse, speed- at his best he really does... WAIT FOR IT.. remind me a bit of Adrian Peterson who's size (6'1 220) is awfully similar to Jay (6' 223). They look great in the jersey and their play certainly doesnt disappoint either. Like Pederson, hell have a couple of duds where he cant get it going and puts up a 14 carry 47 yard clunker- but we live for the 24-152-2 TD games with 3 rec for 42 yards as well. Dark-horse for the top 12, remember, he did it in 16'.

17. ROYCE FREEMAN- ROOK

I was waiting to see if the bulldozer from Organ would beat out a guy who has shown flashes in the past (Booker) and it appears he has. Denver is historically a team that rides backs hard- when CJ Anderson played HE PLAYED, back in the day Terrell Davis and Clinton Portis dominated the load, you get in that elevation and backs can have a hayday with unprepared defenses. CJ had a 30 carry game last year, and went over 20 carries 5 other times. What concerns you about Freeman, more so in the long term for Dynasty drafts, is his usage in college. Essentially a 4 year starter in college, on the All-Time NCAA list he places-- #25 in attempts- #7 in yards- #10 in touchdowns- and #7 in total yards. Great company to be compared with, not so good with CTE central in NFL circles. Hes a smart runner, big load at 5'11 230, and averaged a respectable 5.9 ypc at Oregon being slighly overused. He ran a 4.54, which is fast for his size but not grat for th eposition overall so he wont be a Chris Johnson type of back, but similar to Kareem Hunt we hope. He will start on a balanced offense and has the talent to make good on the opportunity.

18. MARK (freeking) INGRAM FF RB #6

2017: 16 GP- 230 ATT- 1124 YARDS- 4.9 YPC- 12 TD

RECEIVING: 71 TARGET- 58 REC- 7.2 ABG- 0TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1540

Ok.. just read these numbers. RB #6 last year, 3 year average at the position Ingram is 8th in total points, back to back seasons of 10+ touchdowns, back to back seasons of over 1,350 total yards gained, has caught 50+ passes 2 of the last 3 years, and his last 3 years ypc is 4.6-5.1-4.9 with games played of 12-16-16. He is going to miss the first four weeks, but guess what, I'd rather have him for the playoffs than when my roster is going threw arguably the most turnover all season. Kamara is incredibly talented, but look at the most likely outcomes. At worst, Kamara stays healthy (blocking elite Ingram FF outputs) while Ingram gets to prosper from the Saints offense and gets his 15 coveted touches a game. At best, something happens to Kamara and all of a sudden Marky Mark is a top 10 back. Guy is a GDamn Heisman and has more than lived up to expectations in The pro game (Tim Tebow? Jason White? Troy Smith? Trent Richardson? Johnny football? brutal list....). Tough style fits great in goal line spots I think hes a safe bet to surpass his really low ADP.

19. LAMAR MILLER FF RB #16 ESPN RANK:22

2017: 16 GP- 238 ATT- 888 YARDS- 3.7 YPC- 3 TD

RECEIVING: 45 TARGETS- 36 REC- 327 YARDS- 9.1 AVG- 3 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1215

Like the current starter in Miami, this former Dolphin has a highlight reel as good as any. At his best Lamar can do it all, but like Drake they both fall victim to trying to break the big one resulting in losing 2 yards instead of taking the guaranteed 3. His first 4 seasons his ypc average was 4.6, VERY GOOD, but his last 2 seasons its 3.8, VERY BAD. Its not really him, but rather his offensive lines not giving him a chance and sadly that wont change in 18'. The Texans have the 28th worst overall roster according to PFF and the line is a big reason why. Now, if Watson lights it up like he did last year (when Miller was averaging over 14 FF ppg) that is certainly a gateway for bigger holes and lesser foes in the box. Second highest total of targets and receptions last year, that will be the key to finishing in the upper echelon of backs fro him. If he can catch 50 passes, I think his potential is top 10 territory. If it stays the same, his his finishing position will as well.

19.b. DERRIUS GUICE

ROOK

**OUT FOR 2018**

Maybe the most talented runner in the draft (Barkley the most talented player) Guice has 2 things Saquon does not- 2 seasons averaging over 5.9 ypc (8.5 and 7.6) to Barklys even 5.9 average all three years. Now Saquon wins in essentially every other category- but Washington knows how to run and they have a back who can pound it. He is a runner with hole bursting speed and a toughness to finish off runs. I think hes a great compliment to Chris Thompson (who just said he wont be 100% essentially all year:) and we are at the point where we are ranking duos. I think to Saquon, Guice has the closest shot to get 10 TD among rookie backs. Some argued he was better than 4net... and they weren't stupid. If he can stay out of trouble I think he becomes a real safe option in the 2018 season. Player he reminds me of.. Jamall Lewis from the Ravens. Now, Guice is 5-11 215 while Lewis finished his career at 5-11 240- but both backs are thumpers but they can out run you as well. I mean seriously, he leaves the SEC as statistically one of their most accomplished backs... let that sink in.. Character concerns dropped him in the draft but its been nothing but bells and whistles from the heavens sense hes entered training camp. His dad passed when he was 5 and his older brother was in and out of jail, from Batten Rouge, its a great story I hope has a better ending.

20. "d-train" HENRY FF RB #37

2017: 16 GP- 176 ATT- 744 YARDS- 4.2 YPC- 5TD

RECEIVING: 17 TARGETS- 11 REC- 136 YARDS- 12.4 AVG- 1 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 880 YARDS

In 2016 guess who was the fifth best RB in fantasy? DeMArco Murray for the Titans. Year before he was 14th in 14 GP. Tennessee LOVES TO RUN THE BALL. Guess who is getting the rock this year? The Heisman or as I like to say "D-Train". The huge red flag is having 24 career receptions in his two years of service. He needs to catch the ball more to be considered a RB1 and with Dion Lewis coming to town Im not sure he gets the chance. But, I think this teams offense is better, he will be on the field more for catching opportunities, and hes averaged 11.4 ypr in his limited chances doing so. Hes 6'4 247 and is not fun to tackle. He can burst threw arm tackles running up the middle and get chunk gains because of his strength, size, and toughness. I've thought Henry was the more talented back the past two seasons and he will now have a chance to show us what he can do with a full workload. I mean really, look at college numbers, even pro tape, can you tell much of a difference between Henry and Fournette? I MIGHT EVEN LIKE HENRYS TAPE BETTER. Last year the Titans were #15 in the league in rushing yards in a bad year. 2016 they were 3rd, the potential is there for Henry to break out. I just love watching this guy run, maybe he goes off on 23 rushes per game! IM IN!

21. Joe Mixon FF RB #33

2017: 14G- 178 ATT- 626 YARDS- 3.5 AVG- 4 TD

RECEIVING: 34 TARGETS- 30 REC- 286 YARDS- 9.6 AVG- 0TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 913

Joe got caught up in a 3 some that wasn't fun for anyone..... HA.. Hill is gone to NE and Gio(Vani) is still there to piss us off. Mixon's game breaking abilities didnt show up much as a runner in his first season, but the 9.6 ypr and catching efficiency in the passing game were signs his abilities will transfer over. Two years at Oklahoma he never averaged below 6.7 YPC- thats elite. There were reasons some said he was THE BEST RB in last years draft, mind you talents like Cook-Fournette- McCaffery- and Hunt. He was the "off the field issues guy" last year but that narrative seems to be left in the past for the moment. I also think this is a back who needs 18ish carries a game to break one and show his true talents. It was a bad O-Line last year and it didn't get much better, there wont be many (if any) backs more talented than Joe past this point in the rankings but they will certainly have a better opportunity perhaps. I dont think this will be a prolific offense so his touchdowns seems to be capped somewhat. If Gio gets traded-hurt-or decides to play Fortnite instead of football Mixon could go off- he is a go off potential guy.

21. KENYAN DRAKE FF RB #(6GS) ESPN RANK:17

2017: 16 GP (6GS)- 133 ATT- 644 YARDS- 4.8 YPC- 3 TD

RECEIVING: 48 TARGETS- 32 REC- 239 YARDS- 7.5 AVG- 1 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE:883

Career ypc of 5 in his two years in the NFL (fifth in the league over that span) and was RB #7 from week 9 on last year after Miami sent Jay Ajiayi to Phili. He is a guy who will drive you crazy losing yardage looking for the homrun, but just when your ready to burn his jersey he breaks one and... HES LOOOOSE. Frank Gore is bound to take some carries, and with rookie Kellen Ballage already finding trouble I think his starting job is safer than some speculated coming into training camp. He is very fast (returned kicks for Bama) and also has some punch as well owning a 2.5 yards after contact last season. Insert guy who could be top 10 if everything goes right, if the line holds up and he gets over 250 total touches he just might.

22. ALEX COLLINS FF RB #20 ESPN RANK:18

2017: 15 GP (12GS)- 212 ATT- 973 YARDS- 4.6 YPC- 6 TD

RECEIVING: 36 TARGETS- 23 REC- 187 YARDS- 8.1 AVG- 0 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE:1210

This guy is a talented back and finally got a chance to show us in 17'. His 4.6 ypc are even more impressive when you factor in the complete lack of an air game the Ravens had last season (29th in YPG). Kenneth Dixon is hurt again so the leading candidate to steal his RB1 job is gone, however, if you watched last year Buck Allen was on the field more than Collins owners would have licked. Buck's ability to catch passes (which Alex has if theyd let him try!!) keeps him on the field in 2-minute drills at the end of half's and games which is when chunk fantasy outputs happen. Standard leagues this guy could be a gold mine, in PPR some weeks you will be sweating it out when he only gets 16 carries for 58 yards, and itll happen with no catches to. I think this offense will be better, and I think Collins benefits. If you want the security of a guy who will start games on the field at this point in the rankings- he is your guy.

23. MARSHAWN LYNCH FF RB #22 ESPN RANK :26

2017: 15 GP- 207 ATT- 891 YARDS- 4.3 AVG- 7 TD

RECEIVING: 31 TARGETS- 20 REC- 151 YARDS- 7.6 AVG- 0TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE:1042

His name is BEAST MODE- had a 80 yard pre-season TD and is an RB1 in Cali, what else do you need? HE ALSO SURVIVED THE WILDERNESS WITH BEAR GRILLS. Hell be on my team, hope hes on yours.

24. DION LEWIS FF RB #12 ESPN RANK: 23

2017: 16 GP (8GS)- 180 ATT- 189 YARDS- 5 TPC- 6 TD

RECEIVING: 35 TARGETS- 32 REC- 214 YARDS- 6.7 AVG- 3 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE:1110

See.... he played for Bill.. So is he.. like.. really good? Or a product of a good team? Have we had this debate before?

In his career he has a 4.8 ypc- 83% catch rate- and a 8.1 ypr. NOT BAD. Hes been incredibly efficient when he plays, and basically stole James White's job last year in NE after he had the game of his life IN THE SUPER BOWL. He is going to be this years Duke Johnson, he will never start, but will come in and catch passes while getting the occasional run. The pictures of Dion next to Derrick Henry will never get old, NEVER, and its staggering to think there is a possibility Dion is somehow better... Love his running style and is super shifty catching passes out of the backfield. If Henry goes down, he is contending for top 12 status on a weekly basis.

25. HYDE FF RB #8 ESPN RANK: 37

2017: 16 GP- 240 ATT- 938 YARDS- 3.9 AVG- 8 TD

RECEIVING: 88 TARGETS- 59 REC- 350 YARDS- 5.9 AVG- 0 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE:1288

ESPN has the number 8 RB last year ranked 37th.... NOW, although I think they are wrong, there is reason for concern. 1. He didn't even average 4 ypc last year (and 3 of his 4 years he hasn't averaged above 4.2). 2. He goes from San Fran where he was the best weapon on his team to Cleveland where you could make the case he is #4. 3. Rookie, and former Heisman candidate and 1st round pick (before injury), Nick Chub enters town as a 2nd round pick to compete for carries. 4. Per every RB on this list, he has the lowest ypr as well... The good- 1. Chub hasn't been a star in pre-season and Hyde had a great week two of preseason so it appears he will be the RB1, albeit by committee we'd assume.. 2. I think its not a stretch to say the Browns offense as a unit will be better than the Niners were last year which means more opportunities and chances to score. 3. For PPR's sake, he has always been good at catching the ball and has the skill set to be a 3-down back. There is the info, you decide.

26. RASHAAD PENNY ROOK

Dude has a career 7.5 ypc average in college, led the country (at San Diego State) in rushing yards, and was second in the country for TD's. THE GLARING ISSUE, he never caught over 20 passes in a season and is suppose to be a "3rd down back" for Seattle. I mean shit, The Seahawks used a 1st round pick on this guy when they had BIG needs elsewhere. His tape is good, but not my favorite, and you'd assume he gets enough touches to make a difference. Everyone is ranking him a little higher, Im skeptical, but trust the experts we must.

27. CHRIS CARSON (ONLY 49 ATT)

Rookie last year and this dude is a beast. Got hurt week 4 but was tearing it up beforehand. Coach Carroll likes this guy and reports say hes going to start to open the season. Seattle likes to run the ball, and they like to use 1 back doing it. Think of how they used Lynch, and even Thomas Rawls for a minute had his moments. You draft him because you have a guy who should have a significant role early. But with a 1st round pick breathing down his neck, combined with another really bad O-line, can he hold onto it? Well see..

28. ISIAH CROWELL FF RB #31 ESPN RANK: 28

2017: 16 GP- 206 ATT- 856 YARDS- 4.1 YPC- 2 TD

RECEIVING: 42 TARGETS- 28 REC- 182 YARDS- 6.5 AVG- 0 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1035

Top 4 on the list of guys who DIDNT EVEN GET CLOSE TO LAST YEARS RANKING. Lots had him top 15 or higher in their rankings and it just didn't work out. He looked like a trendy pick after averaging 4.8 ypc in 16', but following a 4.1 season- his career average sits at 4.2... His O-line is GOD AWFUL, having 4 of the 5 starters grading out as poor (the worst rating FYI-its bright red) according to Pro Football Focus. With that in mind, combined with the presence of B Pow, I dont see any scenario that he finishes top 20 at the position. I also dont see a situation where he doesn't get close to 200 att but with the offense overall looking pretty bleak I dont see much upside, albeit a lowish floor, for Crowell.

29. DUKE JOHNSON FF RB #11 ESPN RANK: 25

2017: 16 GP- 82 ATT- 348 YARDS- 4.2 YPC- 4 TD

RECEIVING: 93 TARGETS- 74 REC- 693 YARDS- 9.4 AVG- 3 TD

YARDS FROM SCRIMMAGE: 1058

Crowell leaves- insert Carlos Hyde and Nick Chubb. Simply put, I just dont think he plays as many snaps as he did last season. I also think they'll be more competitive, meaning last year they would competently abandon the run being down big early and Duke would be on the field for dump off chances throughout second halves of games. With the new look offense and a really solid core of talent at WR and RB I dont think they punt the run game as soon this season. I also think his TD's were pretty fluky last season, scoring 4 TD on only 82 att is almost impossible, and the stats back it up because the 2 years prior with 170 att he only scored 1 time. His 3 receiving scores was a career high to, and both Hyde and Chubb can catch. This is a guy I could be wrong on, there is a plausible universe where his output is very similar to last year, but take the TD's down and he might still be around the 20 threshold, is he looses snaps to though, hell be right here.

30. TEVIN COLEMAN FF RB #23 ESPN RANK: 39

2017: 15 GP- 156 ATT- 628 YARDS- 4 YPC- 5 TD

RECEIVING- 39 TARGETS- 27 REC- 299 YARDS- 11.1 AVG- 3 TD

In the 15 games Tevin played, he only had 20+ ff points in 1 game. On the flip side, he only had 6 games of single digit points as well. For perspective, Lynch had 6 single digit games, Miller had 6, and J Howard had 7, all players who had more touches than Coleman. You know what your getting in a highly used backup on one of the best offenses in the league. If Freeman goes down he becomes a must start and that alone is alluring to draft him. If you need a potential star late in the draft dont pick this guy, but if you have a few starters and want a plug and play bye week fill in- Coleman is perfect.

 
 
 

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