FLOWING WISDOM: LETS GAMBLE (investing)

I dont usually gamble, but when I do, I prefer doing so wisely. We will be investing funds mostly on NFL games but if we feel inspired some CFB will work its way into the mix as well. Typically I am going to nail down 6 games I like, depends on the lines and spreads. Some weeks we wont want to leave money on the table, and others Vegas just isnt giving us a chance. WE WILL ADJUST, and we will be smart gamblers to (like hammering ND +2 after they opened -7 with the public moving the line nearly 10 pts over 10 days!! Or grabbing the ATL PHI Moneyline when it was favoring the Falcons before the public slightly F'd up the odds). THE MOST IMPORTANT THING TO KNOW is that the line-spreads-overs-unders- All of it is based on THE PUBLIC PERCEPTION, not in actuality. That is where we fight, defend the north, and come home hopefully slightly above even come Christmas shopping season.

Quick Tutorial:

THE SPREAD is a gambling term (or more accurately a number) to signify the difference between two teams with regards to point differential. The spread is always the same number for both team, with one being + (the underdog) and one being - (the favorite). The point of the spread is to create a bet where you have close to or even odds by picking either team. By even odds, we mean each side typically will be -110, meaning you have to bet $110 to win $100 (-110 is considered even odds in the gambling universe, the $10 difference is the casino's "take"). Think of it like two golfers playing each other involving handicaps, it creates a level playing field.

Ex. MN Vikings -8 vs CHI Bears +8/(-110) each

So if you bet the Vikings -8 they have to "cover" or score at least 9 more points than the Bears to win the bet. This also means we are giving the Bears points (or strokes in our golf example) because they are the worse team. So if the Bears loose 24-17, the Bears would still win or "cover" the bet because they only lost by 7, and the "spread" gave us 8 points.

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THE MONEYLINE is the odds a Casino or betting site gives us to pick a team straight up to win against another. It is a number (either + or -) that signifies the odds we get on a given game. The Moneyline is a great bet to win a larger chunk of money without risking as much funds. The Moneyline generates some of the most lucrative bets for gamblers if they wager appropriately.

Ex. PIT Steelers -235 vs CLE Browns +190

So if we bet the Steelers with the "Moneyline" we would have to bet $235 to win $100. Vice versa if we bet the Browns at +190, that means if we bet $100 we win back $190 because they should not win, making it a riskier bet but with a much better payout.

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THE OVER & UNDER is a number total that estimates the amount of points to be scored in a given game combined between the two teams. The is a bet, like the spread, that typically has even odds. But like all bets the odds will move depending on how much "action" or money is waggered on a given side to create less risk for the "house". This is a single number with odds on betting the over side or theunder.

Ex. CIN Bengals vs IND Colts o/u 47 (-110)

This means that the "house" thinks this game will have a complete game score totaling 47 points. If you like the defense of the teams, you will want to bet the under (bet $110 on the game score is 38-20.. you'd win $100 back). If you think it will be a blowout, you will bet the over. You win if they go over and you bet it, you lose if you bet over and they dont reach that total. Pretty simple eh?

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WEEK 1 Winners

GM 1- ATL FALCONS (+2.5/+110) v. PHI EAGLES (-2.5/-130) o/u 45 -110 -110 (9/3/17)

THE PICK: FALCONS +110

This line has been out for a while and it hasn't moved much. With Wentz now officially out for Week 1 the lines will move as Thursday approaches in the Falcons favor. No QB1 for Phily (with Foles looking ehhh in pre-season for whatever its worth), Jay Ajayi practiced Monday but isnt 100% (he only averaged 12.8 touches per game as an Eagle LY) Alshon Jeffery, according to Adam Shefter, is missing the first two weeks of the season. So it will be Foles- Jay and Clement- Nelson Agholor and Mike Wallace vs Matty Ice- Freeman + Coleman- Julio Jones and rook Calvin Ridley.... Now the Eagles defense is amazing owning the 4th fewest pts against and the least amount of opp rushing ypg in 2017. But what we should also note is that the Falcons ranked 9th and 9th in both those categories as well last year so there defense is no joke either. Although people think the Falcons had a down year, they were still 10-6 is a super tough NFC South and made the playoffs coming off a banner 2016 where they ended up in the Bowl. Now, if there was a chink of the champs armor it was pass defense where they ranked 17th in yards against last year. Atlanta ranked 8th in passing yards per last year.... HMMMM.. I feel so good, I dont even want the points! (and its good because you cant get them anymore haha)

THE BET: FALCONS +110 (NOW -120, still good)

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GM 2- MN VIKINGS (-6/-260) v SF 49ers (+6/+210) o/u 45.5 -110 -110 (9/3/17)

I wont waste to much time on this. The media (and public) have been hyping the Niners all off season- and Im not buying it. Jimmy G, although undefeated in his 5 starts last year, threw 7 TD to 5 INT in those games.. HIS LOOKS ARE BETTER THAN HIS PLAY. There #1 offensive signing Jerick Mckinnon is out for the year and a retired now not retired Alfred Morris, along with Matt I cant catch Breida, will run the rock alllllllllll season. There top receiver, who I like as a late Fantasy sleeper this year, still only has a season high line of 56-962-2TD (Marquis Goodwin). They own a middle tier offensive line, but with the #1 defense in 2017 on the prowl I dont think they stand a chance. The Vikes have multiple play makers on every level of the defense and I dont see how, on the road, the Jimmy G led 49ers keep up. Purple and Gold return Cook, Diggs, Thielen, Rudolph, and add one of the most elite yardage QB's the last 3 seasons in Cousins. The O-line is a valid concern, but people criticized it last year and it was just fine. The Hype has created this spread, not the players themselves.

THE BET: VIKINGS -6 (Now -6.5, still good)

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GM 3- DAL COWBOYS (+3/+125) v CAR PANTHERS (-3/-135) o/u 42.5 -110 -110 (9/3/17)

When you gamble, you go to bed praying the Gods will give you just an easy dub. Let the record show, whoever is playing the Cowboys is 9x our of 10 that W baby. Americas team is always over bet, so what is a +3 line should really be closer to +5.

Dak Rookie year to 2nd year:

Comp %- 67.8---62.9

Yards- 3667--3324

TD- 23----22

INT- 4-----13

Run TD- 6-----6

Which Dak is Dak? Add his top 3 receivers are Michael Gallup (WHO?) Terrance Williams (How is he still a Cowboy?) and Allen Hurns... doesn't bode well. Yes a full season of Zeke, but, the Panthers were 3rd last year in rushing yards against (88.1) so Zeke might not be such a freak in week 1. Now Cam doesn't have elite weapons either with Devin Funchess and 1st round pick DJ Moore the leading outsides guys, but in Christ McCaffery they have a guy who was elite the 2nd half of last year and can get yards anyway possible. Its also a none-divisional game so 0 history of these teams with there starting QB's to fall back on. Again- rule of thumb- always bet against the Cowboys spread.

THE BET: PANTHERS -3

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GM 4- HOU TEXANS (+6/ +220) v NE PATRIOTS (-6/-270) o/u 51 -110 -110

Oh man.. Couple bets I like here. Now, Im never one to challenge Bill or Tom Tuddys, but +220 against an offense who (might) be better than the Pats in week 1 isn't crazy. Again, when Watson was on the field Houston was top 3 in scoring. Watson accounted for atleast 2 TD every single start he made in 17' including 4 starts where he had 3+. But the Patriots are just like the Spurs, THEY NEVER seem to have the dudes and then boom your down by 20 in the 4th Q. Its not the bet I will suggest here, but count me in on the +220. Now, with that +220, obviously the odds are not in our favor but its a smart bet when the Texans have Clowney, Watt, and the Honny Badger on defense and then elite players in Hopkins and Watson on offense. If you can find these diamond in the rough lines, although we wont always win, if we convert 45% we will double our money over time (or at least cover our bets). The Pats were the second highest scoring team in 2017 (28.6 per/gm) and the Texans were right around there before Watson succumb to injury. I smell a high scoring game.

THE BET: OVER 51

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GM 5- WASH REDSKINS (PK/-110) v ARI CARDINALS (PK/-110)

Gambling 101- if there is a pick em game, WE PICK EM! This is actually quite a shock, as really all outlets perceive the Redskins as a decent sleeper in the NFC East while the Cards are regarded as one of the worst teams entering 2018 (which I dont buy). Sam Bradford, when he plays, is average to good and in the NFL thats enough. David Johnson is back who when we last saw him had the single greatest fantasy running back season in the last 10 years (facts). But they are also in the bottom third of the league with a poor o-line. Larry Legend had his 2nd straight 100 reception season and on D they do have the likes of Patrick Peterson-Chandler Jones- and Deone Bucannon. Alex Smith steps in after arguably his best season, Paul Richardson is a new weapon from Seattle and former 1st round pick Josh Doctson enters that crucial year 3 season. The Skins have some heat at D-line to with Elite prospect Joanthan Allen (Roll Tide) entering year 2 along with rookie Daron Payne (hes huge & ROLL DAMN TIDE). Dont forget Josh Norman, Ryan Kerrigan, and also DJ Swearinger- this unit is no joke. Derrius Guice being out for 2018 is a huge blow, and I think its a bigger issue than people realize without weapons galore in the passing game. Alright, I talked myself into this one.

((My Hot Take Game))--bc everyone hates the Cardinals this year, LIKE EVERYONE, and ya know what, I see a path to mediocrity.

THE BET: CARDINALS PK (Now -1, still good)

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GM 6- LA RAMS (-5/-220) v OAK RAIDERS (+5+185) o/u 49.5 (9/3/17)

Enter the #1 scoring team from 2017 AT HOME against a Raiders defense who just traded away a top 5 defensive player in the game. The Raiders were the 10th worst defense with regards to opp yards and ranked 19th in points against last year. NOT GOOD. The Rams however were 12 best in pts against and were 19th in yards given up per game. Raiders add Jordy, say good by to Crabtree and bring Jon Gruden down from the booth. 100 Million $ man WTF. Lynch will be back in his age 33 season and Amari Cooper stands as WR1 after having his worst season as a pro. THE RAIDERS BEST PLAYERS ON DEFENSE NOW ARE KARL JOSEPH AND BRUCE IRVIN.. The Rams have assembled a Pro Bowl roster that added defensive stud muffins like Marcus Peters, Aquib Talib, and Suh plus another season of genius from Sean McVay (whos GF IS SUPERB). This is easy money.. as they say.. JUST DO IT

THE BET: RAMS -5 (Now -4.5, HUGE)

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No CFB this week because the games still suck and im not about to put my reputation on the line to watch in horror as Wisco doesn't even get close to covering 34 points or Oklahoma winning by 80 when the cover was 31.. Not a CFB expert, but if you are I will say this time can be as lucrative as any.

** All my listed lines at the top of each game will be from Monday Mornings (when they're nice and fresh). I will adjust the actual bet odds if they change come Thursday- but ill keep the top odds the same so you can notice how they move.

Most importantly, Good God Damn Luck and may the luck of the Irish be with you.

---Sincerely, FLOW---