FLOWING WISDOM: WEEK 2 MONEY GUIDE

WEEK 1 RESULTS: 3/6

THE GATES GAME: 1/1

EMOTIONAL STATUS: GOOD

WEEK 2 CONFIDENCE: HIGH

Review:

PHI v ATL +110-X

MIN(-6) v SF-$$

CAR (-2) v DAL- $$

TEX v PAT (o51)-X

ARI (PK) v WASH-X (Hate myself, see column)

LAR (-6) V OAK- $$ GATES GAME

All I can say is we didn't put ourselves in a hole week one, infact, I actually made money (thank you Gophers FB cover and a W on last weeks "GATES GAME"- ill explain later). Or right now, every week I will have a GATES GAME, meaning its the game I FEEL SO GOOD ABOUT we will drop bills like sir Bill Gates himself to recoup any of the losses we might be exposed to (which wont happen because we dont loose). Last week I bet 3 units on the Rams spread at Oakland and had myself a nice payday (my un-published but legitimate GATES GAME). Another point, if your a casual gambler and are looking to up your game, start using the unit system (your 1 unit can be $5-$20-$100, whatever your budget). It helps you bet in accord with your confidence level, so say your going to watch a benign 3pm game and wanna have some action? Sure, put a unit on there if you haven't done your due diligence. But if you have a game your thinking THIS IS MY CHANCE TO QUIT MY 9-5 AND LIVE MY BEST LIFE then ya bet like 6 units and prepare for high blood pressure. The best gamblers in the world hit maybe 55-60% of the time, so its about 1. Playing the odds so you can get as many bets in your favor from the get-go as possible (like in MLB taking the -1.5 spread for the +130 odds instead of straight up for -150). 2. When you feel good about a game, bet more. If I would have only gone 2/6 on my picks last week, I still would have won overall by going 3 units on my GATES GAME. 3. Lastly, lets just be hyper aware of the fact that THIS IS REAL MONEY FOLKS. (or fake money, I mean your choice honestly, whatever helps you sleep)

With that said- my eyes are bleeding green looking at the week 2 odds. Lets hit em, hang em, and bang em because the beginning of the season is when we really flourish.

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SPREAD- ML SPREAD- ML

GM 1: LA CHARGERS (-7.5/-115_-330) v BUF BILLS (+7.5/-105_-245)

I mean, LA played pretty darn good (albeit there defense w/o their best defensive player in Joey Bosa) but took a L to "Me and my Mahom(ies)". Rivers was Rivers throwing a whopping 51 times, completing 34, with a yardage total of 424 and a 3-1 TD-INT split. Melvin Gordon caught, YES CAUGHT 9-108 + a TD on top of running 15-64 without a 6 piece. Allen was great (8-108-1 TD) backup rb Austin Eckler showed down as a receiver (5-87-1 TD) and 2nd year 1st round WR Mike Williams had a nice start to 18' with 5-81. So, as we expected, the offense will yet again be lethal.

But Buffalo, oh man.. THEY WERE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!! (RIP DENNIS). Didnt bet that game because I thought Flacco would keep it close, nope. But for the Bills the QB (but really the team) is a problem.

Nathan Peterman: 5/18-24 yards- 1.3 avg- 0 TD-2 INT- 3 sack- QBR .7 (50 is average)

Josh Allen: 6/15- 74 yards- 4.9 avg- 0 TD-0 INT- 3 sacks- QBR 33.9

McCoy only had 7-22 on the ground and caught 1 lonely pass for -1 yards. They lost 47-3 and thats all I need to see. LA has a better QB, weapons, Defense and girlfriends.

THE BET: LAC -7.5 & -115

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GM 2: PHI EAGLES (-3/-125_-170) v TB BUCCANEERS (+3/+105_+145)

For the Eagles I thought they played a sloppy game vs the ATL gang, but as championship teams do, with coaching a charisma they still got the W. Foles was not in post season form with a line reading 19/34, 117 yards, and 0 TD-1 INT. As a team they ran it 27x gaining 113 yards with a 4.2 ypc- with 2 Jay Ajayi scores being the difference maker. Any defense that keeps the Falcons offense to only 12 points is great in my book, Matt Ryan looked off but I dont think people gave enough credit to the defense rather than Ryan not being sharp.

On the other hand we saw a cinema inspiring performance from a Harvard grad in the NFL. Fitz(magic) went mental PED on the bit throwing 21/28, 417 yards, with 4 TD. My god... Mike Evans had a day (7-147-1 TD) along with Desean Jackson (5-146-2 TD) BUT, what I didnt like was the rushing and that will prove costly going froward. As a team the Bucs ran 34 times gaining 112 yards with a 3.3 ypc taking on a score. Peyton Barber, newly minted starter, threw up a 19-69 line with Fitz(magic) running 12-36??? Weird..

Bottom line, im not buying Tampa whatsoever. If they lose, as they should have, this line would be close to -7 Eagles. The Eagles secondary shut down a former MVP threw the air, I think they can handle Ryan F just fine.

THE BET: EAGLES -3 & -125

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GM 3: NO SAINTS (-8.5/-110_-400) v CLE BROWNS (+8.5/-110_+320)

I had to re-check the Saint team depth chart to make sure they still have 11 guys on defense... 48 to Tampa?? WHAT!!. Not good- but the offense was on one.

The Lowdown:

Brees: 37/45 439 yards 9.8 avg 3 TD 0 INT 93.4 QBR (really damn good QBR scale 0-100)

Kamara: 8 att 29 yards 3.6 avg 2 TD__9 rec 112 yards 12.4 avg 1 TD

M. Thomas: 16 rec 180 yards 11.3 avg 1 TD

If you have a top 5 QB-RB-and WR in the NFL, your just not going to lose that many games. The D dropped the ball week one, but I still think its an average NFL unit who gave up their fluky bad performance week 1.

For the Browns they had a tie, so whats worse another L or kissing your sister? Not a bad debate. Myles Garrett by himself will win this team atleast 2 games, he looks like a force in year 2 (and also the Predator having week 1 totals of 6 Tackles- 3 TFL- 2 Sacks- 1 Pass Deflection- 2 QB hits).

Tyrod went 15/40 (horrible) 197 yards (ehh) 1 TD 1 INT (very Tyrod) taking 7 sacks (C'MON MAN) and running 8x for 77 yards and a score (fantasy redemption). He is top 4 on the list of guys who can be good on your fantasy team but in no way shape or form do you want them on your actual team. Landry set the tone with 7-106 while Gordon saved my fantasy team with a nice little 1-17- 1 TD day to open the year. Baker watch has officially begun-- stay tuned

This is a decent amount of points, and I really do think the Browns are a different team in 18' than years past. But seriously as long as Tyrod is in I think there ATS record is going to be brutal. The Saints are better at every element of this game, including food choices. I think the Saints have another monster offensive game and Cleveland wont be able to keep up with the Southern boys from New Orleans can.

THE BET: SAINTS -8.5 & -110

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GM 4: KC CHIEFS (+5/-110_+195) v PIT STEELERS (-5/-105_ -220)

"Me and My Mahom(ies)" is my current fantasy team name. Singular names I like Pat-Diddy, P-Homes, Say-Mahhhh (Trey Songz), and lastly PM15. In his second NFL start (1st LY week 17) he had a highly efficient 15 of 27 for 4 TD's with 256 passing yards- QBR 79.5. If you havent heard, Tyreek Hill had 2 receiving TD's owning a 7-169- 2 TD line plus a 90+ yard punt return for a score. Watkins was quiet in his KC debut with 3-21 and mini Gronk Kelce had a mini-me week 1 catching 1 pass for 6 yards. Running back Kareem Hunt had a meager 16-49 game with no scores and no receptions. So in a game basically ran by two players, KC beats the LAC by 10... This team has a lot of guys who any given week can show out, and because of this I think Mahomes and this offense in general will continue to be a top 5 scoring unit under BIG BOY REID. As far as the D, not the best performance but they let up far more yards than they did points. Meaning while they did bend, giving up 28 against River & co. isnt breaking either.

Now, PIT, ugly game. Crazy rain + Big Ben hurt his thumb apparently and the Browns were running on a Hard Knocks high. Ben threw for a lot of yards but 3 picks, 5 total turnovers for the Steelers and they somehow didnt loose. Cancer survivor and Bell replacement James Conner went full SEC on the bit carrying the ball 31 times for 135 yards plus 2 scores. Ju Ju Led PIT receivers in yards cracking 100 while Brow had a solid 9-93- 1 TD game. Conner added 5 catches for 57 and even TE Jesse James plugged himself 3 for 60. The thing is, the defense had a day against Cleveland getting 7 sacks, 13 TFL and a pick by second year CB Cameron Sutton. Watt Jr. HAD 4 SACKS AND 5.5 TFL, can I get injected with Watt blood please?

So I really am unsure what to think about PIT, the defense has some talent in the front 7 but outside of (an old) Joe Haden & Morgan Burnett do we really trust Artie Burns as a starting CB with someone named Mike Hilton in the slot? KC certainly gave a respectable performance, but considering a lot of there weapons didnt snap I know they have even more in the tank. Mahomes has the pocket presence to handle the Steelers rush, on top of the talent at the skill positions to beat PIT's secondary early and often. KC scores a lot and for ounce Big Ben and Tomlin wont be able to keep up. If you feel ballsy, take KC straight up, I just might.

THE BET: CHIEFS +195

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GM 5: SEA SEAHAWKS (+3.5/-115_+150) v CHI BEARS (-3.5/-105_-180)

WHAT?!?! If it wasn't a Vikings-Packers rivalry week, this would be my Gates Game. Hell lets call it a Kylie game (shes a Billionaire right?). THE BEARS ARE LOSING POINTS? Lets look into this one..

Seattle had a very close game with a team im incredibly high on in Denver- final score 24-27. Wilson went 19/33 adding 298 yards with a 3-2 TD-INT spread. Runners included Carson (7att) Penny (7att) and Wilson (2att) combining for 16-64.. This team hasn't been able to run the ball sense Beast Mode.. Baldwin is out for a bit but the receivers did ok- Locket a TD and ginger TE Dissly went 3-105- 1 TD. On D both Griffin's recorded tackles, but outside of that a pretty average outing. The question becomes who will be the new stars of this defense with Thomas not playing, Chancellor retired, Bennett traded along with Sherman to... TBC

I think the Bears are still getting the hymlek maneuver.. This isnt a new take, but when Mitch Trubisky ran out of scripted plays his ability to improvise and adjust in the second half, like last year, was just bad. The Bears were out scored 24-6 in the second half against a former MVP, and they will face the reigning TD leader is Mr. Ciara this week. The ground game was solid with Howard-Trubisky- and Cohen combining for 27-139- 1 TD. But against a Seattle air attack that is borderline elite they will have to do more than just run.

The defensive line is ehh, but superb linebackers having Mack (3 tackles- 1 sack- 1 INT TD limited in Week 1) and Floyd on the outside with star rook Roquan Smith and Danny Trevathan on the inside. But although Fuller has had his moments and former Bama safety Eddie Jackson had a decent rookie season, I dont think the secondary is good enough to compete with the talent in the NFC North, and not Russell Wilson either.

Experience and coaching is what wins this game between to pretty evenly matched teams and Seattle has both. Even if the Bears dominate week 2 for 3 quarters, you dont think Russell Wilson gets back in this game opposite Trubisky in the 4th?? The +3.5 spread versus a +3 is very interesting by Vegas- they dont want pushes they want Losers! Better QB, more clutch players, winning culture, and the "everyone thinks we wont be good this year" mentality has me believing in the Seahawks wanting to shove those points right up the A$$ of Vegas odds makers.

THE BET: SEAHAWKS +150

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GATES GAME (6): MN VIKINGS (PK) at GB PACKERS (PK)

Sense Tuesday this game has been off the books because Rodgers is soft and hasn't declared that he will play against the Vikings yet (This happens when Vegas/bookies see a major injury in a game that will screw the line large in one way or another depending on availability). But, sense im a degenerate gambler I made most of my bets Monday night and got the Vikings opening line, which was +1 -105. So the Pack opened as 1pt favorites, but when it re-opens I would be shocked if it wasn't the Vikings in the -1/-2.5 range if Rodgers does indeed play. DISREGARD THIS BET IF RODGER IS OUT. Assuming he does play, lets freeking go.

Vikings in week 1 did everything with an A grade besides running the ball. Team stats come out to 32-116 with a 3.6 ypc and 0 TD. Dalvin averaged 2.5 yards in 16 tries while Kirk ran 4-26 and LATAVIUS plugged in a ok 11-42.

Thielen was blanketed all day but showed week 1 he and Kirk are looking each others way receiving 12 targets, catching 6 for 102 yards (and a 17 ypr average, Thielen has been one of the best yards per catch players in NFL sense becoming a starter). Diggs had a typically Diggs day with less vOlume, 3-43, but got a score to make fantasy owners happy. Dalvin had a great 1st half receiving and ended up 6-55, and EVEN MEGAQUON caught 2 balls for 18 (with a drop....). Captain Kirk in his regukar season openers did well going 20/36 244 yards 2 TD 0 INT QBR 58.6.

Defensively a masterful game against a top 5 play caller in the league- one Kyle Shannahan. 3 team sacks (Hit-man 1, Hunter 1, Sheldon Rich .5 and Everson G .5) plus 3 picks for the boys (2018 1st round pick Mike Hughes pick 6! Rhodes closed 1, Hitman 1). New DT Sheldon Richardson looked great and added 3 additional QB hits.

For Green Bay they avoid catastrophe by leaking out a win against Chicago entering the 4th quarter down 17. Rodgers was Rodgers, Packers were the Packers (only 18 run attempts for under 4 ypc), and Randall Cobb rose from the labors of trade rumors to ignite the offense with a 9-142-1 TD game on my bench.... Defensively the unit was clutch, but I wouldn't say good. Wilkerson (new DE addition) was ok but didnt jump off the screen at any point. The rookie DB's (Jaire Alexander & Josh Jackson) played ok with last years 1st round pick Kevin King getting legit snaps. The synopsis of this defense- Its a unit who up front isnt great but now has some talent on paper, big linebackers who lack a little speed (they play a 3-4) but are solid NFL starters, and a secondary that has length, talent, but hasn't produced much in the NFL so far.

I wish I could no to spread and moneyline going into it, but frankly I dont think itll matter. Packers LT David Bakhtiari is one of the NFL's best- but the rest of the line is going to have serious problems. RT Bryan Bulaga got bullied by Khalil Mack last week and I expect Danielle Hunter (who is bigger and just as strong) to do the same. On the inside the Vikings just have the best team of D-Tackles in the league, no interior lineman combo can contain them all game. Mike Hughes looks like a player, and along with Hitman Harry-Rhodes- a ever improving Trae Waynes plus underrated safety Andrew Sendejo the Vikings can cover the Pack long enough for Zimmers D to get on Rodgers. If the Vikings are favored, take the spread, but if the Packers are somehow still the odds on team to win take the Moneyline.

THE BET: VIKINGS (BEST ODDS)

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GM 7: NE PATRIOTS (-3/+100_-135) v JAC JAGUARS (+3/-120_+115)

This is a long post so ill make this short.

4 Reasons to bet the Pats:

1. At 41 Tom Brady still looked like the GOAT in week 1 having a QBR of 84.3- throwing for 277 yards and a 3-1 TD-INT ratio against a talented Texans defense.

2. Gronk is healthy and had a great game (7-123- 1 TD) along with the surprising performance of Phillip Dorsett ( 7-66-1 TD) and even broke out Swiss army knife James White for a good 4-38- 1 TD showing in the passing game. MEANING- despite Edleman out Brady still has weapons he can use and trust.

3. Against a offense that with Watson last year was magnificent, the Pats made them look putrid. An offense I would argue is far superior to Jacksonville's coming into 18'.

4. Although 3 is a good amount of points to cover against a former AFC Championship game squad- the +100 odds are spectacular (Pats rarely get + odds)

4.b. In the 13 Pat wins in 2017- they cover 3 points 11/13 times (the other two being 3 pt pushes). When they win, THEY WIN.

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STAY AWAY GAMES:

Colts-Skins (Maybe im underrating the Skins, but the Colts offense could cover..)

Panthers-Falcons (two teams who you never know what your going to get)

Dolphins-Jets (both week 1 winners, no idea who is legit)

Cards-Rams (to high at -13)